Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on utilisation of facility-based essential maternal and child health services from March to August 2020 compared with pre-pandemic March-August 2019: a mixed-methods study in North Shewa Zone, Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: Health systems are often weakened by public health emergencies that make it harder to access health services. We aimed to assess maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH) service utilisation during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with prior to the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a mixed study design in eight health facilities that are part of the Birhan field site in Amhara, Ethiopia and compared the trend of service utilisation in the first 6 months of COVID-19 with the corresponding time and data points of the preceding year. RESULT: New family planning visits (43.2 to 28.5/month, p=0.014) and sick under 5 child visits (225.0 to 139.8/month, p=0.007) declined over the first 6 months of the pandemic compared with the same period in the preceding year. Antenatal (208.9 to 181.7/month, p=0.433) and postnatal care (26.6 to 19.8/month, p=0.155) visits, facility delivery rates (90.7 to 84.2/month, p=0.776), and family planning visits (313.3 to 273.4/month, p=0.415) declined, although this did not reach statistical significance. Routine immunisation visits (37.0 to 36.8/month, p=0.982) for children were maintained. Interviews with healthcare providers and clients highlighted several barriers to service utilisation during COVID-19, including fear of disease transmission, economic hardship, and transport service disruptions and restrictions. Enablers of service utilisation included communities' decreased fear of COVID-19 and awareness-raising activities. CONCLUSION: We observed a decline in essential MNCH services particularly in sick children and new family planning visits. To improve the resiliency of fragile health systems, resources are needed to continuously monitor service utilisation and clients' evolving concerns during public health emergencies.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on utilisation of facility-based essential maternal and child health services from March to August 2020 compared with pre-pandemic March–August 2019: a mixed-methods study in North Shewa Zone, Ethiopia

Introduction Health systems are often weakened by public health emergencies that make it harder to access health services. We aimed to assess maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH) service utilisation during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with prior to the pandemic. Methods We conducted a mixed study design in eight health facilities that are part of the Birhan field site in Amhara, Ethiopia and compared the trend of service utilisation in the first 6 months of COVID-19 with the corresponding time and data points of the preceding year. Result New family planning visits (43.2 to 28.5/month, p=0.014) and sick under 5 child visits (225.0 to 139.8/month, p=0.007) declined over the first 6 months of the pandemic compared with the same period in the preceding year. Antenatal (208.9 to 181.7/month, p=0.433) and postnatal care (26.6 to 19.8/month, p=0.155) visits, facility delivery rates (90.7 to 84.2/month, p=0.776), and family planning visits (313.3 to 273.4/month, p=0.415) declined, although this did not reach statistical significance. Routine immunisation visits (37.0 to 36.8/month, p=0.982) for children were maintained. Interviews with healthcare providers and clients highlighted several barriers to service utilisation during COVID-19, including fear of disease transmission, economic hardship, and transport service disruptions and restrictions. Enablers of service utilisation included communities’ decreased fear of COVID-19 and awareness-raising activities. Conclusion We observed a decline in essential MNCH services particularly in sick children and new family planning visits. To improve the resiliency of fragile health systems, resources are needed to continuously monitor service utilisation and clients’ evolving concerns during public health emergencies.

Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt.

Estimation of the effective reproductive number Rt is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, policy makers and public health officials are using Rt to assess the effectiveness of interventions and to inform policy. However, estimation of Rt from available data presents several challenges, with critical implications for the interpretation of the course of the pandemic. The purpose of this document is to summarize these challenges, illustrate them with examples from synthetic data, and, where possible, make recommendations. For near real-time estimation of Rt, we recommend the approach of Cori and colleagues, which uses data from before time t and empirical estimates of the distribution of time between infections. Methods that require data from after time t, such as Wallinga and Teunis, are conceptually and methodologically less suited for near real-time estimation, but may be appropriate for retrospective analyses of how individuals infected at different time points contributed to the spread. We advise caution when using methods derived from the approach of Bettencourt and Ribeiro, as the resulting Rt estimates may be biased if the underlying structural assumptions are not met. Two key challenges common to all approaches are accurate specification of the generation interval and reconstruction of the time series of new infections from observations occurring long after the moment of transmission. Naive approaches for dealing with observation delays, such as subtracting delays sampled from a distribution, can introduce bias. We provide suggestions for how to mitigate this and other technical challenges and highlight open problems in Rt estimation.

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period.

It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.